LIBA SI · Decision RecordSample · synthetic data · not investment performance
Bayview Commons
48-unit multifamily acquisition, Miami-Dade
1 Deal summary
- Units
- 48
- Purchase price
- $14.4M
- Price per unit
- $300k
- Renovation per unit
- $25k
- Exit cap rate
- 5.50%
2 Decision, conditions and overrides
- Condition. Renovation capped at $27k per unit.
- Override: insurance growth. The Managing Principal kept 8%, citing a broker quote. The override and its reason were recorded.
- Override: rent. The Managing Principal kept $2,450, citing the planned finish level.
3 Outcomes recorded through month 18
| Metric | Plan | Actual | Variance | AI flag before approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance growth | +8% | +31% | +23 pts | Flagged |
| Rent | $2,450 | $2,390 | −2.4% | Flagged |
| Renovation per unit | $25.0k | $27.1k | +8.4% | Flagged |
| Lease-up | 9 mo | 11 mo | +2 mo | Not flagged |
Rent, renovation and lease-up show the change from plan: rent is ($2,390 − $2,450) ÷ $2,450 = −2.4%, renovation is ($27.1k − $25.0k) ÷ $25.0k = +8.4%, and lease-up is 11 − 9 = +2 months. Insurance growth is itself a rate, so it is shown in percentage points: 31% actual − 8% planned = 23 points.
4 Decision traces
Insurance growth +23 pts
| 01 Evidence | Insurance quotes from two carriers and recent comparable Miami-Dade closings, attached to the record. |
|---|---|
| 02 Underwriting | Model v3 assumed insurance costs would rise 8% at the month-12 renewal. |
| 03 AI Analysis | Flagged: 8% is well below what recent comparable Miami-Dade closings experienced. |
| 04 Human Approval | The Managing Principal kept 8%, citing a broker quote. The override and its reason were recorded. |
| 05 Decision | Approved. No condition on insurance. |
| 06 Outcomes | Insurance renewed 31% higher at month 12, 23 points above plan. |
| 07 Institutional Memory | The outcome was consistent with the warning. The override and its outcome are preserved for the next underwriting review. |
Rent −2.4%
| 01 Evidence | Rent roll and five rent comparables. Two of the five are new construction. |
|---|---|
| 02 Underwriting | Rent $2,150 today, $2,450 after renovation. |
| 03 AI Analysis | Flagged: without the two new-construction comparables, post-renovation rent supports about $2,380. |
| 04 Human Approval | The Managing Principal kept $2,450, citing the planned finish level. |
| 05 Decision | Approved. |
| 06 Outcomes | Rent reached $2,390 at 18 months, 2.4% below plan and close to the adjusted estimate. |
| 07 Institutional Memory | Realized rent was closer to the adjusted estimate. Review comparable selection on the next acquisition. |
Renovation per unit +8.4%
| 01 Evidence | Renovation scope and contractor estimate of $25k per unit. |
|---|---|
| 02 Underwriting | $25k per unit, $1.2M in total, with no contingency line. |
| 03 AI Analysis | Flagged: the renovation budget has no contingency line. |
| 04 Human Approval | The Managing Principal accepted the budget but set a cost cap as a condition. |
| 05 Decision | Approved with condition: renovation capped at $27k per unit. |
| 06 Outcomes | Actual cost was $27.1k per unit, 8.4% over plan and just above the cap. |
| 07 Institutional Memory | The actual cost exceeded the approval cap. The record preserves the exception for review, including the missing contingency. |
Lease-up +2 mo
| 01 Evidence | Absorption from the rent roll and two nearby lease-ups. |
|---|---|
| 02 Underwriting | Renovated units leased within 9 months. |
| 03 AI Analysis | No flag raised. |
| 04 Human Approval | Accepted as underwritten. |
| 05 Decision | Approved. |
| 06 Outcomes | Lease-up took 11 months, 2 months longer than planned. |
| 07 Institutional Memory | Missed by both the model and the team. Recorded as an unflagged variance for the next review. |
5 Timeline
| Month 0 | Decision Approved with condition: renovation capped at $27k per unit. The insurance and rent flags were overridden, with reasons recorded. |
|---|---|
| Month 6 | Outcomes Renovation complete at $27.1k per unit, 8.4% over plan and just above the cap. |
| Month 9 | Outcomes The planned lease-up date passes with units still leasing. |
| Month 11 | Outcomes Lease-up complete, 2 months later than planned. |
| Month 12 | Outcomes Insurance renews 31% higher. The plan assumed 8%. |
| Month 18 | Outcomes Rent measured at $2,390, 2.4% below plan. |
| Month 18 | Institutional Memory Record complete. The insurance override and its outcome are available for the next underwriting review. |